Operation Yellowhammer (UK)

Overview

Operation Yellowhammer is the codename used by the UK Treasury for cross-government civil contingency planning for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. In the event of exit with no-deal, the UK's unilateral departure from the EU could disrupt, for an unknown duration, many aspects of the relationship between the UK and European Union, including financial transfers, movement of people, trade, customs and other regulations. Operation Yellowhammer is intended to mitigate, within the UK, the effects of this disruption, and would be expected to run for approximately three months. It has been developed by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS), a department of the Cabinet Office responsible for emergency planning.

In early August 2019, after Boris Johnson had become Prime Minister, the Britis Cabinet Office "was not able to confirm" that the Operation Yellowhammer plan remained in place, although a Yellowhammer document from earlier that month was leaked in mid-August and continues to be updated.

On 3 September 2019, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove, whose responsibilities include preparations for a no-deal Brexit, said in the House of Commons: "Operation Yellowhammer assumptions are not a prediction of what is likely to happen, they are not a best-case scenario or a list of probable outcomes, they are projections of what may happen in a worst-case scenario." An otherwise unchanged version of Yellowhammer leaked earlier to The Times was titled "base case" scenario rather than the "reasonable worst case" scenario of the officially published document; a copy given to the Scottish government was titled "base scenario".

The Sunday Times has reported that Yellowhammer is one of three scenarios being studied, with the other two being Kingfisher, involving a support package for distressed British businesses, and Black Swan, a disaster scenario. Michael Gove has characterised the report as inaccurate. 

Operation Yellowhammer's name and logo

The existence of the operation leaked on 6 September 2018, when a press photographer captured a snapshot of a document revealing some "no-deal" plans and the HM Treasury codename for them. The document appeared to indicate the CCS had been used in anticipation of government policy. No further details were revealed. The National Audit Office subsequently made public some documents about the operation.

The operation code name "Yellowhammer", which relates to a small songbird, was chosen at random according to The Times.

On 2 February 2019, The Times received leaked documents with this code name, about Department for Transport command and control structure plans.

The Sunday Times has reported that Yellowhammer is one of three scenarios being studied, with the other two being Kingfisher, involving a support package for distressed British businesses, and Black Swan, a disaster scenario. Michael Gove has characterised the report as inaccurate. 

Some online leaks and rumours said the official logo would be either the British songbird or a yellow coloured hammer tool on the Union Jack flag.

General activation

Operation Yellowhammer covers actions to be taken in a no-deal scenario, some of which would be implemented prior to the date of leaving.

On 29 January 2019 the [House of Commons]] voted, in a non-binding ballot, to reject a no-deal Brexit. unless the House of Commons were to accept the Brexit withdrawal agreement, or the EU's other members were to grant the UK an extension under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, or the UK were to revoke its Article 50 notice, the United Kingdom would by default have exited the EU on 29 March 2019 with no deal.

On 20 March 2019, Kent County Council activated plans to keep roads, hospitals and schools open, and the Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, said that Operation Yellowhammer command and control structures would be "enacted fully" on 25 March 2019 unless a new exit date was agreed between the UK and the EU. On 21 March 2019, the Ministry of Defence staffed a bunker under its Whitehall headquarters to coordinate no-deal related military activities under Operation Redfold, and the COBRA emergency committee took control of no-deal planning with intentions to implement national contingency plans on 25 March 2019. 

• Late on 21 March 2019, possible new exit dates were agreed between the UK and the EU:

1. The 22th of May 2019, if the House of Commons approved the Brexit withdrawal agreement by 29 March 2019; or 12 April 2019 otherwise.
2. Consequently, full activation of Operation Yellowhammer was postponed until 8 April 2019.

On 10 April 2019 the European Council granted the UK a six-month extension; Yellowhammer's 6,000-strong civil service team was disbanded a few weeks afterwards, with most members returning to their usual activities. Developments since then – with Theresa May resigning as leader of the Conservative Party and both candidates to replace her talking of leaving without a deal by the 31 October deadline – may make it necessary to resume preparations. The Institute for Government said that the government may never be as ready for a no-deal Brexit as it was for the original departure date at the end of March. According to Joe Owen, the IfG's Brexit programme director, reinstating Yellowhammer and reinstating thousands of civil servants to implement no-deal contingency plans is a formidable task; everything will need to be "resurrected and restaffed, and earlier rounds of staff training will need to be repeated". According to the Financial Times and others, this is a sign that we have already run out of time.

It was formerly activated on 20\10\2019.

EU preparedness

The European Union issued a press release on 25 March 2019 indicating it had completed preparations for an increasingly likely "no-deal" scenario on 12 April 2019. 

Organisation

Operation Yellowhammer was developed by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat, though COBRA took control on 25 March 2019. It will be organised via a Command and control structure (C3), which will co-ordinate:

1. Up to 30 UK Government departments
2. If a Government department's contingency plans are inadequate Operation Yellowhammer will take over planning and decisions for that department.
3. Approximately 40 local resilience forums in England and Wales
4. Similar bodies in Northern Ireland and Scotland
5. Governing authorities for the United Kingdom, overseas territories and crown dependencies
6. Co-ordination with impacted industries and sectors.
7. Major decisions will be taken by the European Union Exit and Trade (Preparedness) Sub-Committee, set up in January 2019 and chaired by the prime minister. It will have wide-ranging powers to order emergency measures, including use of the military, and overriding regulations.

Relationships

The CCS may work with the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) to achieve an objective for Brexit work, with the DExEU concentrating on new policies, legislative changes and required funding changes with the CCS dealing with steps to mitigate and manage short-term disruption. An example objective would be Continuity of supply of medicines into the UK after no deal exit from the EU falling within the areas of risk of key goods crossing borders and transport systems. Arrangements for prioritisation of key goods, additional ferry capacity and having procedures in place for operation customs operations that are effective immediately from the Brexit date are some of the areas covered.

Perceived threat level

Areas of risk

Operation Yellowhammer identifies 12 areas of risk. These include the food and medicine supply chains and the status of UK citizens residing in the EU. There are also three risks common to all areas. The twelve areas of risk identified are: transport systems, people crossing borders, key goods crossing borders, healthcare services, UK energy and other critical systems, UK food and water supplies, UK nationals in the EU, law enforcement implications, banking and finance industry services, Brexit and the Irish border, specific risks to overseas territories and Crown dependencies (including the effect of Brexit on Gibraltar) and national security. Risks common to all areas identified are: legal, communications and data.

Medical radioisotopes

The main ones are Cesium (137Cs), Cobalt (60Co), Iodine (131I), Phosphorus (32P), Gold (198Au), Iridium (192Ir), Yttrium (90Y), and Palladium (103). These are the radioactive isotopes of non-radioactive substances. They only last a short while and those used in the UK are mostly made outside the UK. Delays. Delays at customs will make many them less effective or is some cases completely useless!

Yttrium-90, ⁹⁰Y, is a medically significant isotope of yttrium. Yttrium-90 has a wide and valuable use in radiation therapy to treat cancer. ⁹⁰Y  undergoes β⁻ decay to zirconium-90 with a half-life of 64.1 hour's (about 2.5 days) and a decay energy of 2.28 MeV. It also produces 0.01% 1.7 MeV photons along the way. Interaction of the emitted electrons with matter can lead to Bremsstrahlung radiation.

Plans at both Dover and Calais

The mayors of Dover and Calais, along with the heads of their respective port authorities, said in mid 2019 that there would be no Brexit related problems in their port and cities after a no-deal Brexit if politicians stop interfering with the running of them or the customs and revenue agents that worked in them.

Ireland and N. Ireland

Just in time supply planning and repeated border crossings by some individuals each day would end up with a large cumulative supply disruption, supply delay and cross border tariff crisis.  

Possible shortages

Fresh food like Spanish lettuce and some EU made medicines could run out if delays were severe, but the latter had been heavily stockpiled by mid 2019.

Kentish and Southampton lorry cues

Operation Stack and Operation Broc went on to long it would bung up Kent's motorways and Dover's streets, causing untold chaos. Southampton town council suggested some could occur around there docks to.

Business' opinion

The Aerospace industry asked the Government for Brexit reassurance on 10\10\2019 and the government.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the Chemical Industries Association, the Food and Drink Federation, and the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry sent a letter to the BBC and the government on 11\10\2019 warning they could pose "serious risk to manufacturing competitiveness".

Collectively, these sectors employ a total of 1,100,000 people, contributing £98,000,000,000 to the UK's economy each year.

The German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) has warned of the "immediate and particularly serious consequences" of a so-called hard Brexit as early as the 4th of April, 2018.

The point of it all

To test the UK's and the French Channel Ports' ability to handle post-Brexit problems.

The UK does lots of trade with the EU. For example: the British Rail Class 230 or D-train is a diesel electric multiple unit or battery EMU built by rolling stock manufacturer Vivarail for the British rail network. The units are converted from London Underground D78 Stock, originally manufactured during 1980 by Metro Cammell. The conversion re-uses the D78's aluminium bodyshells with new interiors. It runs on the same bogies but these are rebuilt to as-new standard by Wabtec and fitted with brand new 3-phase AC induction motors sourced from Austria! The initial build of 3 vehicles for London Northwestern Trains replaces the four-rail traction-current system with 4 diesel gen-sets, driving 8 traction motors via purpose built electronic Traction Control Units.

Cost and resources used

In March 2019 the CCS had 56 people working internally on the programme; it is estimated 140 would be needed to maintain the operations centre and it has been budgeted to cost £1.1 million in 2018–2019. This is in the context of the UK Treasury allocating £1.5 billion for Brexit preparations by government departments in 2018–2019.

3,500 troops were placed on standby to 'assist the civil power' in the event of issues arising from a no-deal exit, although the Ministry of Defence had only disclosed their mission will be to "support government planning".

Criticism

On 21 March 2019, the UK government's decision to risk a no-deal Brexit and to invoke Operation Yellowhammer was criticised by the First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon. Her sentiments were echoed by the First Minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford. The Brexit party called it all lies and many thought it was a chaotic and uninformative mess.

Release

It was leaked to the press in the August of 2019 and was reluctantly published in the September of that year.

August 2019 leak

In mid-August 2019 an official cabinet Yellowhammer document from earlier that month was leaked. the paper gave base-case planning assumptions in the event of a no-deal Brexit which could lead to food, medicine and petrol shortages, with a hard border in the island of Ireland, and a "three-month meltdown" at ports unable to cope with extra checks. There could be protests requiring police action, and thousands of jobs could be lost as two oil refineries closed. Government ministers disputed the report and dismissed its warnings as "worst-case".

The Sunday Times, according to The Observer, said that a senior Whitehall source said "This is not Project Fear, this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios – not the worst case."

September 2019 publication

A humble address was passed by the House of Commons on 9 September 2019 requiring the government to "to lay before this House no later than 11.00pm Wednesday 11 September all the documents prepared within Her Majesty's Government since 23 July 2019 relating to operation Yellowhammer and submitted to the Cabinet or a Cabinet Committee".

In compliance, on 11 September the Government released a five-page document entitled "Operation Yellowhammer: HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions as of 2 August 2019". Other than a change of title – from "Base Scenario" to "Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions" – and one redacted paragraph reportedly dealing with the impact on the oil refining industry, the document was essentially identical to the one leaked in August.

The document was the subject of a two-hour long "Brexit readiness and Operation Yellowhammer" Ministerial statement and debate led by Michael Gove on 25 September, the day Parliament resumed session after the Supreme Court failed the prorogation attempted by Boris Johnson. During the debate the opposition focused on the modification of the title, from "Base case" to "Worst case". The petrol tariff was revealed by opposition members to be zero, and there was some concern expressed by Adrian Bailey and Melanie Onn about job losses at uncompetitive UK plant.

Operation Redfold

Overview

Operation Redfold is a defence contingency plan of the United Kingdom designed to guide military aid to civil authorities in the event of a generalised emergency arising during the post-Brexit period. It is the military planning programme of the civilian-led Operation Yellowhammer.

Up to 3,500 personnel of the British Armed Forces have been contingently tasked with support of Operation Redfold, of which about 350 are reservists. Upon activation, operational activities will be headquartered in the Pindar complex, according to media reports.

Post Brexit conflict

With support for Brexit riding high (as high as 98.49% in February 2019) it has been assumed the nation would unconditionally submit to the PM's will and enjoy Brexit regardless of the chaos. Boston Borough had a very high leave vote, with the town of Boston reaching 75.6% of it's people voting for Brexit.

Many N. Irish and Irish are worried about the North-South Border issue. Scotland and Wales are also concerned over the heavy impact on their economies.

In 2017, the U.K. imported ~40% of it's food and drink, worth £48,000,000,000, of which 71% it was sourced from the EU and so were not subject to tariffs. The UK will most likely ad a anti-EU tariff of 27% on most of it, with 300% on frozen beef and 180% on orange juice.

The Ex-Met Police Det Chief Insp Mick Neville had branded the government's contingency plans as 'Project Fear' in law enforcement terms' on 10\09\2018.

The Junior Defence Minister, Tobias Elwood, indicated on 08/01/2019 that 30,000 regular troops and 20,000 reservists had to be readied for deployment in the event of a “no-deal” Brexit crisis. It was later said to be a joke by the UK's Civil Service.

A Glaswegian known as the 'Prophecy Prepper', Mark McLean, 33, had by the December of spent more than £2,000 on supplies including medicine and army rations. He had set out plans to head for a safe house in the Scottish Highlands because he's convinced of probable a Russian invasion after Brexit.

They fear massive disruption, Irish and N. Irish smugglers and paramilitary action could ruin things in N. Ireland.

• If boasts at rallys, comments by the police intelligence branches, civil service second guessing and online bragging are to be believed:

1. Tayside- Heavy ecanomic decline leading to desperate people looting and rioting.
2. Central Scotland- Heavy ecanomic decline leading to desperate people looting and rioting. A possible armed insurrection against England and\or pro-EU.
3. N. Ireland- Smuggling booms. Heavy ecanomic decline leading to desperate people looting and rioting. A probable armed insurrection against England and\or pro-EU.
4. County Down- An extremely heavy ecanomic decline leading to desperate people looting and rioting.
5. Newcastel-Upon-Tyne- Massive Xenophobic riots. 
6. Burnley- Massive Xenophobic riots. A possible armed insurrection anti-Southern England and\or anti-EU.
7. Lancashire- Massive Xenophobic riots. A possible armed insurrection anti-Southern England and\or anti-EU.
8. Greater Manchester- Massive Pro-EU rioting.
9. North Wales- Heavy ecanomic decline leading to desperate people looting and rioting.
10. Lincoln- Anti-EU\pro-Brexit protests.
11. Boston- Massive Xenophobic riots. A possible armed insurrection for England and\or anti-EU.
12. Norwich- Massive Xenophobic riots.
13. Liecester- pro-EU\anti-Brexit protests.
14. Bristol- Massive Pro-EU and anti-EU rioting.
15. Central London- Massive Pro-EU and anti-EU rioting and protests.
16. Greater London- Heavy ecanomic decline leading to desperate people looting and rioting.
17. Truro and environs- An extremely heavy ecanomic decline leading to desperate people looting and rioting.

Operation Black Swan

Operation Black Swan is a government programme aimed to prepare for a "worst-case" scenario of Brexit. Museums were particularly concerned to ensure the transit of precious artworks to and from a disrupted shipping chain which would become a "logistical nightmare". Michael Gove was on record as denying the existence such a plan, which appeared to have been leaked to the Times of London by a former cabinet minister who was malcontent at being shunted aside in the Night of the Blond Knives.

Operation Kingfisher

Operation Kingfisher is a part of government plans for Brexit. This programme will help companies over the transition period. A report published by the Times of London on 10 August detailed the programme to help large employers, particularly in the construction and manufacturing sectors because of their long supply chains. Fewer than 1,000 businesses are on the watchlist. The plan, which was conceived under Philip Hammond as a means to inject cash from the public purse directly into businesses, is currently being administered by Michael Gove.

Also see

1. Brexit
2. Eurosceptics
3. 20\10\2019 UK alert
4. "Little Englanders"
5. French Channel Ports
6. Meaningful vote
7. Hard Irish border
8. Irish border question
9. 17/09/2019 UK alert
10. 25/09/2019 UK alert 2
11. 24/09/2019 UK alert
12. No-deal Brexit scenario
13. Just in time supply planning
14. October 19th, 2019, Brexit Treaty vote
15. The October 17th, 2019, Brexit Treaty
16. The European Research Group (The ERG)
17. Irish border question and a 'hard Irish border'
18. Jeremy Corbyn's January 16, 2019 vote of no confidence
19. Operation Stack (Brexit, trucking) and Operation Broc (Brexit, trucking)

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